This year, more than 110 million people will watch the Super Bowl, each group will start for their favorite group. Let the fans of the winner go all the ardent rights for another year. But according to the Superbowl Index, the winning team will also determine whether the stock market will increase or decrease during the year.
Starting back in 1967, the index shows that if the Super Bowl winner is from the AFC, the stock market will fall this year. However, if NFC wins the game, then the bulls will run on Wall Street. The first seems silly? How can the winner of a football game have any influence on the stock market? But the number is impressive.
By using the Dow Jones Industrial Index as the only benchmark, the index was exactly 36 out of 47 times, or 77% of the time. There were times when this index was even more accurate, for example, between 1967 and 1997 when accurately predicting the market 90% of the time.
So at first blush it seems like it really works, but logically we know that it shouldn’t. That is really impossible. So what’s going on?
The answer is data mining. Data mining is the reality of looking at large data sets and then finding the correlation between two really unrelated data sets. Data mining is to explain the fact that when the average batting goes down, the stock market rises.
It also explains the suspicious relationship between sunspots and economic activity.
Perhaps a better way to think about data mining and it’s related to the Superbowl index is to see the opposite correlation. Think about how many data sets exist in annual life. The number of new network sitcoms is illuminated each year.
How many times Brad Pitt is on the magazine cover. The number of times the boss asks you to work late. How many bills are given in the Senate. And so.